An Unusual Flight (Perhaps Too Much)

A peculiar flight is currently underway. A Russian Air Force Tupolev Tu-154M (registration: RA-85686) took off from Arkhangelsk and passed through Estonian airspace between 14:41 CET and 15:09, crossing the country from east to west.

This is unusual because, as with all NATO countries (except Turkey…), the overflight of Russian military aircraft is prohibited. Typically, aircraft heading to Kaliningrad follow a route through international airspace, avoiding NATO countries’ airspace.

However, on rare occasions, they enter without authorization, triggering NATO fighter jets to scramble in response.

The question in this case is whether this is the actual route or the result of spoofing, which makes the displayed route appear altered from the real one.

This hypothesis is likely accurate, as observing the route shows it “readjusted” over the Baltic Sea, suggesting that the aircraft likely followed its usual route.