Russian Navy continues its withdrawal from the Mediterranean

In recent days, two Russian Navy vessels have crossed the Strait of Gibraltar heading into the Atlantic Ocean. These are the frigate Boikiy, the last armed surface combatant of Moscow still operating in the Mediterranean, and the intelligence ship Viktor Leonov, which we had tracked several times sailing close to NATO bases in the area.

At present, the only Russian naval assets left in the Mediterranean are the tanker Kama, currently operating in the Alboran Sea to provide support and replenishment, and the pair formed by the tug Jakob Grebelsky and the submarine Novorossiysk, also located in the Alboran Sea for several days. Both units are under close NATO surveillance, as demonstrated by the repeated flights of Alliance maritime patrol aircraft over the area.

Should the submarine and its support tug also leave the region – which now seems a likely scenario – Russia’s naval presence in the Mediterranean would effectively be reduced to zero. Even if this does not happen immediately, it is undeniable that Moscow’s military presence in the area has reached historic lows.

The main reason appears to be the lack of a permanent base: since the beginning of the year, Russia can no longer rely on Tartus in Syria. Although “friendly” ports remain available in Egypt and Algeria, they do not provide the logistical support required for long-term deployments.

While new deployments are likely to come in the future, as of today the threat posed by the Russian Navy to NATO forces in the Mediterranean is essentially negligible.