A cautious homebound route for the “Wing of Zion”

Right now (15:00 CEST) the Israeli Air Force Boeing 767-338(ER), registration 4X-ISR, is bringing Benjamin Netanyahu back from New York to Tel Aviv. The track is eloquent: entry into the Mediterranean from the Strait of Gibraltar, a long diagonal across the central basin and no passage over the skies of Spain and France. Once at the height of the Aegean, the aircraft keeps a route south of Crete, staying over international waters (therefore inside the Athens FIR, but outside Greek territorial airspace). On our screen the flight appears with operational identification XA001.

It is a choice that says a lot about the moment. The overflight itself would not cause problems; what worries are rather unplanned stops: a diversion due to failure or emergency in countries that have taken rigid positions on the international judicial dossier could create a diplomatic case. Hence a “belt” planning, which minimizes exposure to jurisdictions considered sensitive and prefers the longer way: Atlantic, Gibraltar, southern Mediterranean, outer Aegean, Israel.

In the jargon of governmental aviation it is the classic risk-mitigation route: more fuel, more time, but fewer political variables. The result is the map we see now: a clean curve that skips Spain and France and “touches” Greece without entering it, before descending towards Tel Aviv.