A rather unusual mission is underway this evening for a US Navy P-8A Poseidon operating over the eastern Mediterranean. Unlike the classic surveillance patterns we usually observe in this area, the aircraft has been flying an irregular and atypical track south of Cyprus, including several tight orbits in a relatively confined zone.
The position of the activity, well away from the standard maritime surveillance boxes closer to the Syrian or Lebanese FIRs, makes today’s flight particularly curious. The pattern instead unfolds mid-basin, between Cyprus and the Egyptian coast, an area where we rarely see such persistent maneuvers by a Poseidon.
Given the nature of the aircraft and the unusual geometry of the track, it is possible that the P-8A is focusing on a specific vessel of interest transiting the region. While this cannot be confirmed from open-source data alone, the repeated orbits suggest a targeted operation rather than routine wide-area monitoring.
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The real question is have the Russian Pacific Fleet’s frigate Marshal Shaposhnikov and the fleet oiler Boris Butoma entered the Mediterranean after being spotted in the Red Sea on Dec. 6th?
We simply don’t know. Unlike Gibraltar, the Suez Canal is a black hole for OSINTers. If they were to make a stop in some “friendly” port, only then would we be able to confirm their position.
Now that’s interesting, I didn’t know that vessels would be able to turn off trackers while transiting the canal. I would imagine the only friendly ports in the Med would be a port call in Algiers, Tobruk or maybe Bizerte, given the uncertainty of the naval base in Syria. Time will only tell I guess. Thanks again for the updates!