Let’s start with a premise: there are no known Iranian submarines currently operating in the Mediterranean. At least, none have been officially reported.
This clarification is necessary in light of the unusual missions we’ve observed in recent days over the Eastern Mediterranean. For three consecutive days, a USNavy Boeing P-8 Poseidon aircraft, operating out of NAS Sigonella, conducted a highly unusual surveillance mission off the coast of Israel. The aircraft flew low-altitude patterns—at times dropping below 800 feet—suggesting a possible search for something beneath the sea surface.
Iran has claimed it launched some missiles from its submarines, presumably navigating in the Persian Gulf. However, there have been no confirmed sightings of Iranian submarines in the Mediterranean.
Still, caution may be the driving force behind these reconnaissance flights. Over the past two days, the Poseidons have returned to higher altitudes, continuing to monitor the region—possibly keeping an eye on suspicious surface vessels, including cargo ships that could potentially be transporting weapons intended for strikes against Israel.
There are, of course, many questions and uncertainties. What we do know, however, is that the flight patterns of these missions are unusual enough to be worth highlighting—though without resorting to overly speculative theories.
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