The Russian Grip Tightens on Libya

While global attention remains fixated on events unfolding in the Middle East, significant developments in Libya are slipping under the radar.

On April 12th, a Russian Navy flotilla comprising two landing ships, the Otrakovsky and the Ivan Gren, departed from Tartus, escorted by the corvette Mercury , en route to Libya.

📸of the 🇷🇺military logistics convoy (Ivan Gren, A.Otrakovsky and Mercuriy) when it left 🇸🇾Tartus on 04/12 to carry out its 🥈 artillery transportation tour.
This equipment seems to be on its way to the 🇱🇾Al Khadim base where Africa Corps is stationed.#Wagner is back!🫡 pic.twitter.com/xGen1Pc6IC

— Russian Forces Spotter (@TiaFarris10) April 15, 2024

Upon arrival in Tobruk, the vessels unloaded a substantial amount of military equipment, as depicted in circulating online videos showing heavy machinery and artillery being offloaded at the port of Cyrenaica.

شاهد | تحصلت #فواصل من مصدر على تسجيل مرئي من #ميناء_الحريقة بطبرق يظهر سفينة لـ #اقوات_البحرية_الروسية تُنزل اليوم شاحنات وأسلحة و #معدات_عسكرية.

وأكد المصدر، الذي فضل عدم الكشف عن هويته، أن هذه الدفعة الخامسة على الأقل من التجهيزات العسكرية التي وصلت إلى #طبرق خلال 45 يوما… pic.twitter.com/KgVdTwD03q

— فواصل (@fawaselmedia) April 14, 2024

This purportedly isn’t the first such delivery to Libya, with unconfirmed reports suggesting it could be the fifth. Following their operations in Libya, the Russian ships proceeded towards Syria.

Just days earlier, Sergio Scandura, a journalist from Radio Radicale renowned for his meticulous coverage of events in the central Mediterranean, tracked the Russian cargo vessel “Mekhanik Makarin” meandering along the eastern coast of Libya with no clear destination before heading westward. This suspicious route raises questions about the intentions behind such maneuvers.

A weird route off #Libya

After a step in Sousse #Tunisia 🇹🇳, the russian cargo🚢Mekhanik Makarin 🇷🇺, from 1 to 8 april stayed off estern Libya 🇱🇾 b/t 138>58 nautical miles NNW Tolmeita. #MekhanikMakarin is now westbound underway in the Western Mediterranean sea.

📍 OSINT RR pic.twitter.com/7hn5pHhpCq

— Sergio Scandura (@scandura) April 12, 2024

What’s particularly baffling is the apparent lack of intervention from Operation IRINI, tasked with halting the illicit arms trade to Libya. Even if not directly engaged due to the military nature of the vessels involved, their silence, both operationally and in terms of media coverage, raises eyebrows.

1⃣2⃣

Resta una ulteriore domanda. La missione #EUnavForMed #Irini⚓️🇪🇺 che sta proprio nel Mar Libico, con navi e velivoli ISR, per contrastare le (continue) violazioni della delibera ONU sull'embargo di armi in #Libia: possibile che non abbia visto niente di russo 🇷🇺 in mare? 🤌 pic.twitter.com/Gg9jLQYWt6

— Sergio Scandura (@scandura) April 14, 2024

While past revelations about the delivery of MiG-29s to the Libyan (Eastern) Air Force were disclosed by official US sources, this time, only through OSINT efforts have we pieced together a narrative hinting at the potential establishment of a feared Russian naval base in Libya—a prospect that, given the observed traffic, appears increasingly likely.